World Population Profile: 1996 -- Highlights

In 1994, the governments of 180 nations came together at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, Egypt, to seek agreement on how to cope with the task of integrating population and development issues and programs. One of the most difficult elements of the task is that of stabilizing world population growth.

The latest projections of the Bureau of the Census indicate that world population will increase from its present level of 5.8 billion persons to pass the 6 billion milestone by the year 2000. These projections also show world population reaching a level of 7.6 billion persons over the next quarter century, an increase over 1996 roughly equivalent to adding three more Sub-Saharan Africas to the present world total.
In 1996, 95 out of every 100 persons added to world population live in less developed countries (LDC’s).
Between now and the year 2000, population increase will be concentrated in Asia because its present population is so much larger than that of any other region. Also, interregional differences in growth rates -- the second key determinant of shifting population distribution -- have a relatively limited effect in the short term. Developing countries of Asia will contribute 176 million persons to world population increase during the next 4 years, with a fourth of this increase, or 44 million persons, to be added in China. The Asian increment to world population is about 25 percent greater than the net addition attributable to all other countries combined. Other developing countries will contribute about 126 million persons; the United States and other more developed countries, about 18 million persons.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth rates will be the highest of all major world regions for the next 25 years. In spite of rising mortality in some countries due to the HIV/ AIDS pandemic, total population for the Sub-Saharan Africa region as a whole will double within 32 years if present trends continue.
India and Nigeria are emerging as two countries making disproportionate contributions to world population growth during the 1996-2020 period because of their continued high fertility and already massive populations. India presently contributes about 19 percent of total world population increase, more than any other country. If Nigeria’s rapid growth continues, its population will nearly double during the coming quarter century, boosting Nigeria past Bangladesh, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, and Brazil among the world’s most populous nations.
The elderly population is the fastest growing age group worldwide. Persons ages 65 and over will increase more than twice as fast as total population between 1996 and 2020. The growth rate of this age group in less developed countries will be double that in more developed countries. By 2020, two-thirds of the world’s elderly will live in LDC’s.
Even with the rapid growth of the elderly, however, most of the dependent population (ages 0 to 14 and 65 and over) in developing countries is, and will remain, children. Nearly 9 in every 10 persons making up the combined dependent age groups in less developed countries are under age 15 in 1996. This fraction declines, but is still 8 children in 10 dependents, in 2020.
At least 132 million births will occur every year for the next 25 years despite falling fertility. The continued high level of births in the face of declining birth rates largely reflects the still increasing numbers of women of reproductive age (the result of past high fertility) in less developed countries.
About 8 million infant deaths will occur in 1996. More than 90 percent of these will be in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. If present trends continue, however, the total number of infant deaths worldwide will drop by nearly half, to 4.5 million, by year 2020 as a result of a leveling off in number of births (and, hence, number of infants at risk) and decreases in infant mortality rates.
Of 100 babies born this year in Sub-Saharan Africa, 9 will die within 1 year. In the world’s more developed countries, it will take about 60 years for these 9 deaths to occur. The difference reflects a continuing gap in mortality levels faced by the populations of the world’s more and less developed countries.
A child born this year in Sub-Saharan Africa can expect to live only about 50 years, while a child born in one of the more developed countries of the world may expect to survive to age 74, or about 50 percent longer. Over the course of the coming 25 years, life expectancy at birth in more developed countries is projected to increase by 5 years; that of less developed countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa, by about 6 years; only slightly reducing the gap in life expectancy between more developed and less developed countries.

The world community adopted an agenda for action at the ICPD and the regional preparatory conferences which emphasizes demographic goals, economic growth within the context of sustainable development, improved access to reproductive health care, and the empowerment of women.

Projections of the Bureau of the Census indicate that only 50 to 60 percent of the developing nations are likely to achieve the ICPD mortality reduction goals set for the year 2015 in spite of ongoing improvements in child survivorship in the developing world. Few countries, whether developing or more developed, will meet the goals adopted for the year 2000.
Fewer than half of the developing countries of Asia are likely to achieve the regional goal of replacement level fertility by year 2010. China already has. India probably will not.
The African regional goal of an annual natural growth rate of 2.5 percent by the year 2000 appears attainable; however, the follow-on goal of 2.0 percent by the year 2010 will be difficult to achieve if present trends continue.
Access to reproductive health care, including family planning, is a key goal adopted in Cairo. Women are, in fact, using family planning in increasing numbers in every world region. In developing countries today, five times as many couples are using contraception as in the 1960’s.Nevertheless, the full range of modern methods is unavailable to as many as 350 million couples worldwide.
Improved availability of family planning services would carry important maternal and child health benefits, particularly in less developed countries. In addition, more widespread use of contraception could reduce unwanted fertility, which may be as high as 15 to 20 percent of all fertility in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, and as high as 30 percent in Latin America and North Africa.
Fifteen million high-risk births occur each year to adolescent mothers, and 8 of every 10 of these take place in the developing nations of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. A substantial proportion of these births are unwanted, yet the young women involved are not using any means of contraception to delay or prevent them.

Source: U.S.Bureau of the Census, World Population Profile: 1996, pp. 1-2.